Talking a look at the top 6 picks in the 2011 draft: Looks like the Nats lucked out

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As you watch Anthony Rendon learn how to be a big league hitter this year, I think it is interesting to consider how the rest of the 2011 MLB draft has performed.

On draft day a few years ago most experts thought the top flight talent was six or seven players deep.  This worked out for the Nats picking six.  All Mike Rizzo had to do was sit back and wait on whoever fell to him.  Thant being said, Anthony Rendon was a surprise.  In a post by a Nats intern the day after the draft I remember reading how he had actually wrote up 5 press releases, because the Nats were not sure how the draft was going to go.  The only player in the top six they didn’t prepare before the draft: Rendon.  It was a pretty much a foregone conclusion that he would go to Seattle at 2 as the top bat in the draft  Well, it worked out differently.  Lets look at the other 5:

1 Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh Pirates Right-handed pitcher UCLA
2 Danny Hultzen Seattle Mariners Left-handed pitcher Virginia
3 Trevor Bauer Arizona Diamondbacks Right-handed pitcher UCLA
4 Dylan Bundy Baltimore Orioles Right-handed pitcher Owasso High School (OK)
5 Bubba Starling Kansas City Royals Outfielder Gardner Edgerton High School (KS)
6 Anthony Rendon Washington Nationals Third baseman Rice

I thought about this, because Keith Law posted his list of top prospects whose stock is falling.  He listed 3 Bundy, Bauer, and Starling. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1147

Garrit Cole:  made his MLB debut this year and has had good and bad starts 3.69 ERA.  About the same ERA as Taylor Jordan.

Danny Hultzen: Shutdown in July due to shoulder problem in AAA only started 6 games

Trevor Bauer: Traded to the Indians in the off-season Keith Law says: Bauer has two major issues — his velocity is way down, and he can’t make an adjustment when it’s clear that he can’t locate near the strike zone

Dylan Bundy: Tore his UCL had Tommy John surgery

Bubba Starling: Keith Law writes: “lost at the plate” with “no approach or feel”

As you can tell, other than Cole and Rendon the top 6 has been a washout to this point.  The Nats would have drafted one of the top five  if Rendon was not available.  Sometimes it is better to be lucky than smart.

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