Nationals Trade Analysis: Doolittle, Madson for Treinen, et al

The biggest fallacy of the 2017 Nats season–and I’ve heard this opinion from Washington Post columnists to random fans at the ballpark–is that the team needed a “closer.”  They didn’t need a closer; they needed an entirely new bullpen. The Nats’ biggest problem is so thorough, one Mark Melancon or Zach Britton wouldn’t solve it.

The Nationals have worst bullpen ERA and batting average against in baseball. The Nats have a 6.28 ERA in the 9th inning. The team’s 5.14 8th inning ERA is merely an upgrade from dreadful to bad. These raw numbers only scratch the surface. Nats starting pitchers have pitched the most innings among all teams, surely a symptom of Dusty Baker trying to squeeze extra innings from the starter every night. The leaky bullpen has lengthened games and sapped team morale. The almost-nightly ritual of bullpen incompetence has had a cumulative negative effect on an otherwise immaculate Nats season.

There’s currently one pitcher–Matt Albers–whose performance this year has consistently been above embarrassing–and I’m not sure I trust him in October.

This season’s annual bullpen upgrade (Melancon in 2016, Papelbon in 2015) will be an overhaul. They won’t be renovating the kitchen, they’ll be tearing down the house and building a new one.

The question wasn’t whether the Nats would be buying relievers in bulk, but how deep in their system they would reach to pay for it. My fear was that Nats’ backs were pressed so hard against the wall they’d have to trade their future, notably mega-prospect Victor Robles or another blue chip like Juan Soto or Erick Fedde. My assumption, though, is that Rizzo called teams until he found one that didn’t demand those names. In frequent trade partner Billy Beane, he found one.

Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson are exactly what the Nats needed. Neither of them are Andrew Miller, but they’re professional relievers with reliable stuff who won’t embarrass the franchise. They’re the type of players who should have been on this roster to begin the season. Rizzo tried to build the 2017 Nats bullpen with duct tape and chicken wire, when he should have called a licensed contractor. There are no shortcuts to building a pennant winner and Rizzo was arrogant for thinking he could do it.

As usual, the Nats paid the right price. Blake Trienen is expendable. Trienen showed promise in a prominent setup role in 2016, but he simply couldn’t make the transition to pitching in the 9th inning, where his lack of command and poise became a liability. Treinen’s devasting high-90’s sinker still gives me hope he could one day be a dominant reliever. But a pitcher who can’t be trusted to pitch this October is a luxury this team can’t afford. Maybe the A’s can salvage him. Good luck.

By trading 2016 2nd and 3rd picks Sheldon Neuse and Jesus Luzardo the Nats gave up value but avoided mortgaging a Top 100 prospect, which they rarely do. Mid-level prospects are what Rizzo will be cashing in this season. If you’re a Nats prospect just outside the Top 100, expect your name to be called. More trades are coming. Like any large renovation project, this one will be done in phases.

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