Nats Contract Recoup Tracker

This year, we decided to keep a running total of the value measured in fWAR compared to the players current contracts.   The cost per WAR is 6 million, which is the going rate on the free agent market for this previous off season.

One thing that is obvious, the younger the player, the less they make, the easier it is to recoup the contract cost.  I expect this to be interesting as the season goes on as we argue if a veteran is worth it.  Another thing to consider is that recouping contracts do not guarantee that the Nats will have a successful year, just that they allocated money prudently.  The tracker includes the % of salary recouped and the projected day of the season which the player will recoup.  In case you wonder last year the team had 35.9 WAR for about 206 million in value.  The team is currently on pace for 52 WAR.

Player Salary WAR Value % Recoup Game
Jordan $504,300 0.2 $1,200,000 238%
Moore $507,900 0.2 $1,200,000 236%
Espinosa $540,850 0.2 $1,200,000 222%
Rendon $2,700,000 0.7 $4,200,000 156%
Barrett $500,000 0.1 $600,000 120%
Treinen $500,000 0.1 $600,000 120%
Roark $506,100 0.1 $600,000 119%
Harper $2,150,000 0.3 $1,800,000 84% 16
Strasburg $3,975,000 0.5 $3,000,000 75% 17
LaRoche $12,000,000 0.4 $2,400,000 20% 65
Storen $3,450,000 0.1 $600,000 17% 75
Zimmerman $14,000,000 0.4 $2,400,000 17% 76
Werth $20,571,429 0.5 $3,000,000 15% 89
Gonzalez $8,600,000 0.2 $1,200,000 14% 93
Span $6,500,000 0.1 $600,000 9% 141
Soriano $14,000,000 0.2 $1,200,000 9% 152
Zimmermann $7,500,000 0.1 $600,000 8% 163
Desmond $6,500,000 0 $0 0%
Stammen $1,375,000 0 $0 0%
Davis $501,400 0 $0 0%
Fister $7,200,000 0 $0 0%
Frandsen $900,000 0 $0 0%
McLouth $5,000,000 0 $0 0%
Purke $1,037,500 0 $0 0%
Ohlendorf $1,250,000 0 $0 0%
Hairston $2,500,000 0 $0 0%
Detwiler $3,000,000 0 $0 0%
Clippard $5,875,000 0 $0 0%
Blevins $1,675,000 0 $0 0%
Leon $501,000 0 $0 0%
Ramos $2,095,000 -0.1 -$600,000 -29%
Lobaton $950,000 -0.1 -$600,000 -63%

Nationals WAR: Tracking the Players Week to Week

This is the first tracking of WAR for the Nationals this year that also takes into account defense.  It looks like Fangraphs waited for 2 weeks before first posting defensive numbers as a component of WAR.  Obviously, the defensive numbers utilize a small sample size, but as a component of WAR, they count.  Some players known for their defense (Span, Espi) are calculated at negative right now. This will most likely get sorted out as the season goes on and the sample size gets larger.

The best week goes to the Nats youngest players Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper.  Rendon doubles up his first week and Bryce dug out of his 1st week hole.  Desmond, on the other hand, with a team worst defense score and a negative batting rating is only bailed out by his position (SS) adjustment.

Name 7-Apr 14-Apr Last Week
Anthony Rendon 0.3 0.6 0.3
Bryce Harper -0.3 0 0.3
Jayson Werth 0.3 0.5 0.2
Ryan Zimmerman 0.2 0.4 0.2
Adam LaRoche 0.3 0.4 0.1
Nate McLouth 0 0 0
Kevin Frandsen 0 0 0
Danny Espinosa 0 0 0
Denard Span 0.2 0.1 -0.1
Ian Desmond 0.1 0 -0.1
Sandy Leon -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Jose Lobaton 0.1 -0.1 -0.2

 

Introducing the Contract Recoup Tracker

This year, we decided to keep a running total of the value measured in fWAR compared to the players current contracts.   The cost per WAR is 6 million, which is the going rate on the free agent market for this previous off season.

One thing that is obvious, the younger the player, the less they make, the easier it is to recoup the contract cost.  I expect this to be interesting as the season goes on as we argue if a veteran is worth it.  Another thing to consider is that recouping contracts do not guarantee that the Nats will have a successful year, just that they allocated money prudently.  The tracker includes the % of salary recouped and the projected day of the season which the player will recoup.  In case you wonder last year the team had 35.9 WAR for about 206 million in value.  The team is currently on pace for 62 WAR mostly thanks to the Mets bullpen.

Statistically, the Nats had a very good first week of the season, Jayson Werth, despite playing under a contract deemed way too much the day he signed it, is on pace to recoup by the All-Star break.  Adam LaRoche, a player many were prepared to retire after last year is on pace to recoup by the end of May. Also, Congrats to Tanner Roark, Taylor Jordan, and Aaron Barrett for already recouping their league minimum salary.

 

Player Salary WAR % Recoup By Game
Roark, Tanner $506,100 0.2 237%
Barrett, Aaron $500,000 0.1 120%
Jordan, Taylor $504,300 0.1 119%
Rendon, Anthony $2,700,000 0.3 67% 9
Lobaton, Jose $950,000 0.1 63% 10
Strasburg, Stephen $3,975,000 0.3 45% 13
Stammen, Craig $1,375,000 0.1 44% 14
Span, Denard $6,500,000 0.2 18% 33
Storen, Drew $3,450,000 0.1 17% 35
LaRoche, Adam $12,000,000 0.3 15% 40
Gonzalez, Gio $8,600,000 0.2 14% 43
Desmond, Ian $6,500,000 0.1 9% 65
Werth, Jayson $20,571,429 0.3 9% 69
Zimmerman, Ryan $14,000,000 0.2 9% 70
Zimmermann, Jordan $7,500,000 0.1 8% 75
Soriano, Rafael $14,000,000 0.1 4% 140
Davis, Erik $501,400 0 0%
Fister, Doug $7,200,000 0 0%
Espinosa, Danny $540,850 0 0%
Frandsen, Kevin $900,000 0 0%
McLouth, Nate $5,000,000 0 0%
Purke, Matt $1,037,500 0 0%
Ohlendorf, Ross $1,250,000 0 0%
Hairston, Scott $2,500,000 0 0%
Detwiler, Ross $3,000,000 0 0%
Clippard, Tyler $5,875,000 0 0%
Ramos, Wilson $2,095,000 -0.1 -29%
Blevins, Jerry $1,675,000 -0.1 -36%
Harper, Bryce $2,150,000 -0.3 -84%

Nats Stats (wRC+) End of Year

Name Last Week Change This Week
Jayson Werth 157 3 160
Bryce Harper 139 -2 137
Ryan Zimmerman 129 -4 125
Ian Desmond 118 -2 116
Wilson Ramos 114 0 114
Adam LaRoche 103 0 103
Anthony Rendon 97 3 100
Denard Span 97 0 97
Steve Lombardozzi 65 0 65
Tyler Moore 64 0 64
Chad Tracy 37 0 37

Notes:

Jayson Werth 4th best in baseball best in the NL

Harper Top 10 OF  in baseball better than Pence, Upton and Stanton.

Zimmerman #7 ranked 3rd base

Nats Stats (wRC+) 19 Sept

as per fangraphs

Name Last Week Change This Week
Jayson Werth 163 -2 161
Bryce Harper 144 0 144
Ryan Zimmerman 125 5 130
Wilson Ramos 111 10 121
Ian Desmond 123 -4 119
Adam LaRoche 103 0 103
Anthony Rendon 97 3 100
Denard Span 99 0 99
Steve Lombardozzi 64 0 64
Tyler Moore 64 -3 61
Chad Tracy 41 -1 40

Notes:

Harper #6 Werth #2 OF in basebaall

Zim is #5 3B in baseball now would be 9th ranked 1B

 

 

 

 

Nats Stats (WAR) Aug 19

Name Last Week WAR Change This Week WAR
Ian Desmond 4 0.1 4.1
Jayson Werth 2.4 0.4 2.8
Bryce Harper 2 0.2 2.2
Denard Span 1.4 0 1.4
Wilson Ramos 1.1 0 1.1
Ryan Zimmerman 1 0.2 1.2
Anthony Rendon 0.6 0.3 0.9
Kurt Suzuki 0.2 -0.1 0.1
Adam LaRoche 0.2 0 0.2
Roger Bernadina -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Steve Lombardozzi -0.6 -0.1 -0.7

Notes:

Rendon seem to have made his adjustment to the leagues adjustment of him

Werth continues his great year

Despite all the drama surrounding Harper, he had a very good week at the plate

Spans position and defense cancel out his poor hitting

Nats Stats (wRC+) 15 Aug

I am starting to keep track of wRC+ or (weighted runs created) on a week to week basis. This is a stat that measures a players offensive contribution compared to the league average.  In this case Jayson Werth is 60% better than the league average and Steve Lombardozzi is 39% worse.  This is different than WAR because it only measures hitting, it is not cumulative and it doesn’t take into account player position.

Name  Last Weel Change This Week wRC+
Jayson Werth 153 7 160
Bryce Harper 146 -8 138
Ian Desmond 117 8 125
Wilson Ramos 117 5 122
Ryan Zimmerman 113 3 116
Adam LaRoche 99 3 102
Anthony Rendon 95 6 101
Denard Span 87 1 88
Steve Lombardozzi 56 5 61
Kurt Suzuki 56 2 58
Roger Bernadina 42 0 42
Chad Tracy 34 -2 32

Notes:

Werth is 3rd in the NL behidg Puig and Hanley Ramerez

Rendon, while slightly above average is the 7th ranked 2nd baseman in the NL

Desmond (not and All-Star)  leads all qualified SS in MLB

Zimmerman at 116 is better than Manny Machado at 110